From the perspective of German companies at their international locations, the global economy will develop somewhat more dynamically overall in the coming twelve months than recently. In spring 2024, the around 4,300 companies surveyed by the AHKs worldwide are much more optimistic about economic development than in fall 2023. 31 percent of companies expect economic development at their locations to improve over the next twelve months (fall: 22 percent). In contrast, 19 percent expect the local economy to slow down (fall: 28 percent). Every second company expects stable development based on the current economic situation (fall: 50 percent). The resulting balance of better and worse assessments has thus risen from minus six points in the fall to currently twelve points and is therefore clearly back in positive territory. The balance is once again noticeably above the long-term average of two points (recorded since 2015). The companies' assessment of economic development at their international locations is more confident than it has been for two years.
The global economy has recently shown resilience. Global supply chains are functioning despite the persistently uncertain security situation in the Red Sea. In addition, inflation rates have fallen in many advanced economies, meaning that the first interest rate cuts are possible from the second half of the year. Private consumption may also develop positively as a result of lower inflation rates and higher wages. There are risks in particular that inflation rates could rise again, for example due to rising energy and commodity prices caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The continuing weakness of the Chinese economy on the demand side also represents a damper for globally active companies.
In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Greater China), companies' economic expectations have improved compared to the previous survey and are above the global average (balance 20 points after previously nine points, long-term average ten points). Despite high interest rates in some countries and the interdependence with the weakening Chinese economy, the economies in Asia-Pacific have developed resiliently, in particular due to stable consumption. As in the fall survey, companies expect strong economic development in India in particular, partly due to high public infrastructure investments (balance 59 points). In Vietnam (balance of 40 points), the Philippines (balance of 45 points) and Japan (balance of 28 points), expectations are also positive and in some cases significantly better than in the fall. In Thailand, on the other hand, economic expectations have cooled and positive and negative voices balance each other out (balance of zero points). Companies at their locations in Greater China remain predominantly pessimistic about economic development (balance minus twelve points after previously minus 16 points, long-term average two points). Weak private consumption and problems in the real estate sector are still weighing on the Chinese economy.